Decision Diagnostic
Frame and test the question
Decision question, scope and system boundary, first causal loop map, actor map and a written recommendation on whether a wargame is warranted.
Ways to work with us
Choose a focused diagnostic, a model, a wargame or a complete programme. Each engagement has a useful output of its own. The client's decision-maker decides whether to proceed to the next phase.
Engagements
The sequence follows the method, but a client can enter at the appropriate point. We scope the necessary upstream work inside a project when it has not already been done. Durations are working estimates and depend on access, evidence, participants and the decision's complexity.
Frame and test the question
Decision question, scope and system boundary, first causal loop map, actor map and a written recommendation on whether a wargame is warranted.
Understand what drives the outcome
A model suited to the decision, an assumptions register, sensitivity and scenario findings, key delays and a plain-language briefing on the levers and limits of the evidence.
Test decisions against adaptation
Game design and team preparation, facilitated play, documented adjudication, an after-action review and a refined model or causal account. Modelling work is included in the scope if needed.
Turn findings into a course of action
Strategic aim, centres of gravity where applicable, lines of effort, decisive conditions, sequencing, decision gates and accountable owners.
Make the plan executable
Agreed procedures and decision rights, a tabletop built to test their coordination, an after-action record and a prioritised gap list.
Rehearse and observe performance
Purpose-built drills, observed timing and handoff measures, an improvement log and a recommendation for the next cycle.
Run the work as one campaign
The diagnostic through model, game, campaign, procedures and rehearsal, with a client-owned go/no-go decision between phases.
Keep decisions current
Agreed model updates, monitored indicators, short decision briefs, periodic short games and advisory support when an agreed trigger is reached.
A model may be a transparent causal structure, a quantified simulation or a combination, depending on the question and available data. Measures and deliverables are agreed in the engagement scope. No result is guaranteed.
Two other starting points
We do a compact diagnostic before the scheduled tabletop and design injects around the actors, feedback and dependencies that matter. The after-action report identifies decisions tested, gaps and any longer-term effects the tabletop could not establish.
A short seminar game built around a scoped decision question. Leaders experience competing incentives and system effects, then leave with a first actor and loop map and a clear recommendation for further work.
These formats are scoped separately. A short game or tabletop can reveal questions that merit deeper study; it does not substitute for a validated simulation or a full wargame.
Crisis and emergency response
This work draws on Rajesh’s naval emergency response and Resolve Marine India experience. Its scope is set by the incident and the organisation’s existing command arrangements.
Crisis leadership and communications workshops, tabletops and simulations that test decision rights, message approval, spokesperson roles, leadership cadence and internal and external communication under incomplete information.
Advisory support for multi-party coordination, situational assessment, recovery priorities and after-action learning during a major incident or disaster. Availability and authority are agreed for each engagement.
A crisis workshop, live advisory assignment and strategy wargame answer different questions. We recommend the format that fits the decision and circumstances.
Decision gates
At the end of each engagement we brief what the evidence supports, what remains uncertain and whether further work is justified. The client's named decision-maker owns the go/no-go call. A diagnostic may conclude that a workshop, analysis or plan review is enough.
For a continuing programme, the model and its assumptions can be revised as events unfold. Drill observations and new information feed into later decisions. The update cadence, trigger thresholds and access arrangements are set in the scope.
First conversation
Send a brief, non-sensitive outline of the decision, timing and who will use the findings. We can then suggest a suitable starting point and discuss confidentiality before sensitive material is exchanged.
rajesh@fullahead.co.in ↗