Frame the decision
State the question in one sentence with a named decision owner. Agree the time horizon, success measures, evidence, boundaries and what the exercise cannot answer.
Our methodology
Model the system. Wargame the decision. Turn learning into action.
Strategies meet resistance when other actors adapt, consequences arrive late and early indicators mislead. We test a decision against those dynamics before it becomes a costly commitment.
Purpose
A decision exercise, with a model behind it.
A wargame explores decisions with adaptive actors and incomplete information. A crisis drill rehearses execution of a response. Both can be useful, but they answer different questions.
Our sequence starts by framing the decision and modelling the situation. The model informs game design and adjudication; play then tests assumptions in the model itself. Findings can be translated into a campaign, procedures and subsequent rehearsal when the scope calls for them.
Seven connected steps
From decision question to practical capability.
Map the actors
Use network analysis where relationships matter to identify influence, brokers, bottlenecks and isolated groups. Examine interests and incentives so the game represents credible choices and responses.
Model the system
Represent feedback, accumulations, delays and constraints at a depth suited to the problem. The model may be a causal map or a quantitative simulation. Record assumptions and label their basis: evidence, expert judgement or illustration.
Test the model in proportion to its intended use. For a simulation, this may include structural checks, dimensional consistency, extreme-condition and sensitivity tests, and comparison with observed behaviour where data permit.
Wargame the decision
Teams make choices; other actors and the environment respond. The model informs adjudication alongside evidence and structured expert judgement. We record why outcomes were assessed as they were and where uncertainty remains.
The game tests options and also challenges the model. Unexpected behaviour becomes a reason to revisit assumptions, not to force the result to fit a prior view.
Design the campaign
Where the decision calls for sustained action, use operational art to connect strategic aims to lines of effort, decisive conditions, sequencing, resources and friction. Identify what must be protected or shifted, and how progress will be observed.
Codify and tabletop
Translate validated lessons into decision protocols, SOPs or action plans as agreed. A tabletop can test the proposed roles, handoffs and communications before operational rehearsal.
Drill and measure
Where appropriate, practise execution under time pressure, observe performance and measure gaps against agreed criteria. Use the findings to revise procedures and the model. An existing response can also be drilled independently when that is the immediate need.
How we work
Inquiry with a traceable record.
We do not build a model to justify a decision already taken. We show what the model cannot represent, where evidence is thin, and how assumptions affect the findings.
The engagement scope defines the model, assumption register, test record, game pack, analysis and handover artefacts to be delivered. That keeps the work auditable without promising the same package for every assignment.
Explore the four modelling lenses ↗Method notes
Grounded in established practice, adapted to the decision.
The work draws on system dynamics model testing, structured wargame design and operational planning. We use these disciplines in proportion to the question and available evidence.
Start a confidential conversation
What decision needs testing?
Email a short outline without sensitive details. We can discuss the scope and evidence before any confidential material is shared.
rajesh@fullahead.co.in ↗