What does a wargame actually involve?

A wargame tests a decision before it is taken. Your team makes choices, other teams play those who can respond — competitors, regulators, customers or an adversary — and consequences unfold over time. It asks whether an option still works once others can move.

They answer different questions. A wargame explores choices and adaptive responses. A tabletop examines how people coordinate and apply plans or procedures to a scenario. A drill practises defined actions and measures execution. The right starting point depends on the question; these formats can also form a sequence.

Delays, feedback loops and second-order effects can overturn a strategy. A fit-for-purpose model makes those assumptions visible before play. It informs adjudication alongside evidence and expert judgement. The game can then confirm, challenge or refine the model.

Decisions where another party can respond, the choice is consequential or hard to reverse, and delays may make intuition unreliable. Examples include market entry, pricing, restructuring, supply disruption and cyber extortion. If those conditions are absent, we may recommend analysis or a workshop instead.

The decision owner and people whose functions the decision touches may include finance, operations, legal, HR, security or communications. A diagnostic may include a workshop day; game preparation and play depend on scope. We agree the participants and time commitment in advance.

We start with the decision, what your people know and the records available. Public sources can supplement them. Assumptions are labelled as sourced, expert judgement or illustrative. Missing data identifies uncertainty and may limit the conclusions.

Every model is incomplete. We test its structure and behaviour in proportion to its intended use, document tests and limits, and examine how conclusions change when uncertain assumptions move. Where precise numbers are not supported, we say so. Participants can challenge the model during the game.

We explain which levers appear promising, which could backfire and where the evidence is thin. We do not build a model to justify a choice already taken. The client retains the decision.

The diagnostic ends with a decision frame and recommendation. A model study includes a suitable model, assumptions and findings. A wargame adds an after-action review and model refinements. Campaign plans, procedures and drills have their own outputs. Exact handover materials and access are agreed in the scope.

Yes. A short diagnostic can sharpen a scheduled tabletop, or a seminar game can fit a leadership offsite. It gives the team a first decision frame and map without requiring a full programme.

The current working estimates are two to three weeks for a diagnostic, four to eight weeks for a model study, six to ten weeks for a strategy wargame and four to six months for a full cycle. These are planning ranges, not benchmarks or commitments; timing is scoped with the client.

We agree confidentiality, access, handling, retention and any NDA before sensitive material is exchanged. We do not identify clients or publish their work without permission. Where feasible, an engagement can use anonymised data.

The method can be applied to decisions faced by ministries, agencies and regulators as well as organisations. The appropriate scope, authorities and information controls are agreed for each engagement. This statement does not imply a government client relationship.

No software is required for participants to take part. We prepare the model and explain findings in plain language. Analyst access and handover format are agreed in the project scope.